Is John Jaso an upgrade over Pedro Alvarez?

On Dec. 2, 2015 the Pittsburgh Pirates non-tendered first baseman Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez spent parts of six years with the Pirates but his poor defense and frustrating approach at the plate ultimately led the club to part ways with the 29 year old slugger. 

The departure of Alvarez left a hole at first base with the only other first basemen on the Pirates' 40-man roster being the 6'5" giant Michael Morse, the offensively inept Sean Rodriquez, career minor-leaguer Jake Goebbert and top prospet Josh Bell. Morse can't handle full time duties at first, Rodriquez profiles best as a utility player, Goebbert is unproven in the majors and Bell likely needs at least one more year in Triple-A before he can make the jump to the majors. Enter one John Jaso.

The Pirates signed John Jaso on Dec. 23 to a two year, $8 mil. contract to serve as the left-handed half of their first base platoon. One problem though, Jaso, a former catcher/left fielder, has only logged a total of five innings playing first base in the majors. 

As the Pirates attempt to convert another player to first base I ask myself, Is Jaso reall an upgrade over Alvarez? And if so by how much? To answer these questions I am going to be comparing both players in three areas; offense, defense and price.

Offense

John Jaso and Pedro Alvarez are about as different as two major league hitters could be. Alvarez is a good of a power hitter as you'll find in the game today. In six years (2500 at bats) in Pittsburgh Alvarez hit 131 home runs with a .441 slugging percentage. However he did not get on base consistently (career .236 batting average, .309 OBP) and struck out way too much (809 strikeouts in 2784 plate appearances). Jaso on the other hand hits for almost no power (37 career HR in seven years) and is a more patient hitter that focuses on getting on base (career .263 BA, .361 OBP). 

So which one is better? To answer that I want to look more closely at their hitting stats. They have both been used primarily as left-handed platoon hitters in their careers so I will look at their stats specifically against right-handed pitching. Alvarez is really good versus righties, slashing .246/.320/.473 against them in his career. Jaso also rakes against right-handers, slashing .274/.368/.429 in his career.

I am going to call this one a wash. It is hard to compare these two players' offensive skill sets because they are so different. Alvarez is a middle of the line-up power bat who drives in runs while Jaso and his high on-base-percentage fit better at the top of the order. They both have their strengths and weaknesses and can be productive big league hitters.

Defense

Alvarez had a historically bad season defensively last year as he made the transition from third to first, committing 23 errors at his new position. Jaso is more of an unknown at the position, having only ever played five total innings at first. 

Below is two videos from piratesprospects.com of first base fielding drills from Jan. 11 and Feb. 17. The first video includes Jaso, Jake Goebbert and Josh Bell taking grounders. Goebbert is clearly the most comfortable of the three, but Bell and Jaso show good instincts. I think it's a good sign to see Jaso getting time in at first so early before the start of the season. the second video is Just Jaso receiving throw at first. He drops a couple but overall it is pretty encouraging.

For this comparison I think it is appropriate to look that the kind of fielders these two were before they attempted the transition to first base. Alvarez has always been a below-average fielder, committing 110 errors in five seasons as the Pirates' third baseman. Jaso, on the other hand, committing a mere 13 errors in six seasons as a catcher and no errors in 96 innings in the outfield. 

Based on their career numbers I am going to give the edge here to Jaso. I'm also giving Jaso the benefit of the doubt and assume that he probably isn't going to commit anywhere close the the 23 errors Alvarez made in 2015.

Price

This is an easy one as Jaso will make $4 million for each of the next two years while Alvarez was projected to make $8.1 million in arbitration for 2016.

For comparable offensive value and presumably better defense for half the cost and double the years I am going to say that John Jaso is indeed an upgrade over Pedro Alvarez. While Pedro's power number will be difficult to replace I think Jaso's superior on base percentage will play very well in the Pirates' line-up. Pair that with improved defense at a lower price I think the Pirates' acquisition of John Jaso may prove to be one of the best value off-season pick-ups of any team.

2016 NFL Draft - Top 10 Quarterback Prospects

Despite lacking any big name talent like Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston, the 2016 class of quarterbacks still has some interesting prospects. With the Cleveland Browns almost certainly picking a quarterback with the second overall pick who will they go with?

For this list I  looked at each player's 2015 and career statistics to make a preliminary group of 17 draft eligible QB's. From there I watched 3 game films for every QB on the list. One good game, one bad game and one average game. I wrote down each players' strengths and weaknesses and ended at this list.

This list is not meant to represent the order in which I think these players will be drafted, just how talented I think they are at the quarterback position right now.


1. Jared Goff - California

Jared Goff got better every year he as at California and as a result put up ridiculous numbers in his junior season. Throwing for 4719 yards and 43 touchdowns makes Goff the number one QB on my list. Goff showed that he can make any throw on the field, go through his progression at a pro-caliber level and he showed that he can command on offense. Some weaknesses in Goff's game are that he has trouble overthrowing receivers on deep passes and he is almost no threat outside of the pocket. I see Goff as needing to sit his first year in the league in order to completely learn how to run a pro-style offense and how to handle NFL defenses. I think he has the highest ceiling in the class and could develop into a superstar in the right setting.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 1 #2 overall - Cleveland Browns

2. Connor Cook - Michigan State

I like Connor Cook more than most and I'm willing to admit that. MSU runs a pro-style offense that Cook excelled in. While Cook's stats won't jump off the page at you (3131 yards, 24 touchdowns) he was consistent and solid (if not unspectacular) for one of the nation's best teams in one of the nation's toughest conferences. A poor outing against Alabama in the College Football Playoffs and injury concerns have raised red flags for some people but I still see Cook as one of the premier quarterback prospects in the draft. That being said Cook won't be able to win games by himself in the NFL and will likely need to a team with pieces already in place to have success.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 2 #43/45 overall - Los Angeles Rams

3. Paxton Lynch - Memphis

Paxton Lynch burst onto the scene in 2015 with a bang, throwing for 3776 yards and 28 touchdowns while leading Memphis to a 9-4 record. Lynch boasts what might be the strongest arm in the class and couples that arm strength with above average downfield accuracy. He also has enough mobility to make opposing defenses worry about him pulling the ball down and taking off. In order to have success at the next level he is going to have to refine his accuracy and learn how to go through his progression faster. If he finds himself in an offense that likes to push the ball down field I think he could be a hit.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 1 #13 overall - Philadelphia Eagles

4. Dak Prescott - Mississippi State

The one time Heisman favorite will end up being the best dual-threat quarterback in the class in my opinion. Prescott is a big, powerful runner that can sling the ball downfield. He threw for 3793 yards and 29 touchdowns in his senior season and his ability to run can really open things up in the play-action passing game. If he can improve his deep ball accuracy I think he has a chance of sticking in the NFL as a starter.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 4 #102 overall - San Francisco 49ers

5. Brandon Doughty - Western Kentucky

The small school QB that lead the nation with 5055 passing yards and 48 touchdowns. Brandon Doughty is suburbly accurate and is a good decision maker. Although as a fifth-year senior with a relatively weak arm I see him more as a back-up at the next level than a team's long-term solution.  He is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the class and could be a late round steal for a team looking for a back-up.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 5 #140 overall - New Orleans Saints

6. Kevin Hogan - Stanford

Coming out of the same program as Andrew Luck, Kevin Hogan's play reminds me a lot of Luck. Hogan has a strong, accurate arm and has the athleticism to escape the pocket and make plays with his legs. The senior racked up 2867 yards and 27 touchdowns in his final year, showing great red-zone production. Unlike Luck however Hogan panics under pressure and must work on handling blitzes if he wants to succeed in the NFL.
Predicted Draft Position: Round  5 #143 overall - Indianapolis Colts

7. Carson Wentz - North Dakota State

Maybe the biggest risk in the quarterback class, Carson Wentz has caught a lot of analysts eyes with his exciting play and wining ways, but to me he is just another FCS quarterback. While Wentz has NFL-caliber arm talent he tends to stare down his receivers and usually only makes one read before either checking the ball down or taking off. That works at the FCS level put not in the pros. If he can work on those problems though I think he could be a productive NFL quarterback.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 1 #4 overall - Dallas Cowboys

8. Christian Hackenberg - Penn State

Has anyone in recent memory had a more disappointing college career than Christian Hackenberg? The number one quarterback out of high school had a great freshman season under head coach Bill O'Brien. After O'Brien left to coach in the pros Hackenberg seemingly fell apart, never putting up the big number everyone thought he could. That being siad Hackenberg has a lot of good qualities for a pro-level QB. He moves well in the pocket, goes through his progression well and can be accurate when given the time. The problem was he played behind a horrible offensive line at Penn State and was never given that time. Behind a good O-line (and being reunited with Bill O'Brien) I think Hackenberg just might make it in the NFL.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 2 #22 overall - Houston Texans

9. Cardale Jones - Ohio State

Another Big 10 quarterback with professional aspirations, might have been better off declaring for the draft following his national championship victory a year ago. Nonetheless, Jones has a cannon for an arm and at 6-5, 250 lbs. he is tough to take down. If a team can put up with his inconsistent accuracy and teach him to survey the entire field he might surprise some people.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 4 #115 overall - New York Jets

10. Jacoby Brissett - NC State

The big, experienced Jacoby Brissett played in a pro-style offense under a coach who worked with NFL QB's Russel Wilson and Mike Glennon. This alone wouldn't be enough to get drafted, but Brissett flashed just enough potential in college to make this list. With a big frame, a strong arm and an uncanny ability to make something out of nothing Brissett is a late-round prospect that has the chance to be a very good back-up. Despite inconsistent accuracy, Birssett seems to always make the big play right when his team needed it, if he can translate this ability to the pros he'll find himself on someone's roster come preseason.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 6 #173 overall - Buffalo Bills

Other draftees:
Brandon Allen - Arkansas
An experience, pro-style QB that could make a good back-up. Predicted round: 6/7
Cody Kessler - USC
Showed great promise in his junior year before falling off in 2015. Predicted round: 7