Thursday, March 3, 2016

Are NFL teams overpaying for bad QB's?

Joe Flacco and Sam Bradford will be among th highest paid QB's in the NFL in 2016
This week we have seen a couple of below-average quarterbacks be signed to massive contracts. Sam Bradford was re-signed by the Eagles to a two-year $36 million dollar contract Tuesday and the Ravens gave Joe Flacco a three-year, $66.4 million extension with a $40 million signing bonus that puts him under team control through the 2021 season. However you may feel about Flacco and Bradford, statistically speaking they were both well below average in 2015. Out of 34 qualified QB's Bradford was 26th and Flacco was 30th in terms of quarterback rating. This leaves me wonder what in the world were those teams thinking with these contracts?

All the article I have been reading are defending these contracts, saying Flacco is better than his stats because he was hurt last year and his receivers were not good and Bradford will play better under a new head coach not named Chip Kelly. I say those are some pretty big unrealistic assumptions to make and to commit that much money to. I am going to look at each of these players' track records and try and show how these contracts make no sense.

Since being taken with the first overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft Sam Bradford has been thoroughly underwhelming. Bradford has only ever passed for more than 20 touchdowns once and has thrown double digit interceptions in all but two season in which he did not even play in ten games. He has a career 81.1 QBR and has battled injuries his entire career and missed the 2014 season entirely.

Since winning the Super Bowl in 2012 Joe Flacco has not lived up to the massive six-year deal the Ravens then signed him to. Prior to winning the Super Bowl Flacco had a career 86.3 QBR and after winning the super bowl he has a 82.4 QBR. He also has a 1.3 TD/INT ratio in that time.

Now these certainly are not horrible stats, they are capable NFL starters and can win a team games. However these contracts make Bradford and Flacoo some of the highest paid quarterbacks in the entire league.

Below is a comparison between 2015 QBR and salary/year for the 15 highest paid QB's.

QB Salary/year NFL rank 2015 QBR NFL rank Salary-QBR diff.**
Joe Flacco $22,133,333 1 83.1 30 29
Aaron Rodgers $22,000,000 2 92.7 15 13
Russell Wilson $21,900,000 3 110.1 1 -2
Ben Roethlisberger $21,850,000 4 94.5 11 7
Eli Manning $21,000,000 5 93.6 13 8
Philip Rivers $20,812,500 6 93.8 12 6
Cam Newton $20,760,000 7 99.4 8 1
Matt Ryan $20,750,000 8 89 20 12
Drew Brees $20,000,000 9 101 6 -3
Kirk Cousins $19,953,000 10 101.6 5 -5
Ryan Tannehill $19,250,000 11 88.7 21 11
Colin Kaepernick $19,000,000 12 78.5 31 19
Jay Cutler $18,100,000 13 92.3 16 3
Sam Bradford $18,000,000 14 86.4 26 12
Matt Staford* $17,666,667 16 97 9 -6

*Tony Romo was emitted because he did not qualify for the 2015 QBR standings
**Negative numbers indicate that player is underpaid


As you can see Flacoo is horribly overpaid and Bradford is right up there too. Now I am not saying that both of these players can't improve in 2016 I am just saying that these teams probably should not have spent so much money on so big a risk. At least if Bradford busts the Eagles only have him for two years. The Ravens are stuck with Flacco until 2021 and he is already 31.

No comments:

Post a Comment