Source of Inspiration: Arial Font

People say that for a painter a blank canvas has endless possibilities. Well, Arial font is my blank canvas. When I'm creating graphics either for The Rocket, this blog, or for anything else, Arial is one of my favorite fonts to use, second only to BaseOne. I like Arial because of how plain it is. It is extremely simple and thus, extremely readable. And because it is so simple and so readable you can pretty much do whatever you want to it and people can still read it. You can add what ever effects, make it whatever color, make it bold, italic, bold AND italic, it doesn't matter. People will still be able to read it, This kind of creative flexibility is why I almost always use Arial in graphics.

Here it is colored red and with a stroke. Still readable.

Here it is colored green with an inner shadow. Still readable.

Here it is colored blue, beveled and embossed, with an outer glow and a drop shadow. STILL READABLE.







Long story short, you can pretty much do whatever you want to Arial font and you will still be able to read it. Which is why I love it.

The Pirates' rotation troubles and how to fix them

The Pirates has had some, let's say, less-than-staler starting pitching to begin 2016. Gerrit Cole (1-2, 2.70 ERA) and Francisco Liriano (1-1, 4.11 ERA) should be fine, but Jon Niese (3-0, 4.24 ERA), Jeff Locke (0-2, 7.24 ERA) and Juan Nicasio (2-1, 4.80 ERA) all might end up being big question marks.

Niese's job is probably the safest out of the three, as he seems to be the most consistent and have the most upside. Locke has always been inconsistent and somewhat ineffective at times and I think he might be gone by season's end. Nicasio will probably end up in the bullpen, as he has trouble sustaining success throughout his starts.

Reinforcements are on the way for the rotation in terms of top prospects Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon, but neither of them are expected to be promoted to the majors until mid-summer. So until Glasnow and Taillon make it to Pittsburgh, what are the Pirates to do?

I think the first step should be moving Nicasio to the pen and moving Ryan Vogelsong into the rotation. Nicasio will be more valuable than Vogelsong in the bullpen and Vogelsong put up good numbers as a starter last year with the Giants.

From there I think it just turns into a waiting game. They're better off just waiting for Glasnow and Taillon than try to make a trade or sign some guy. Like I said, Niese will probably be fine and Locke isn't the worst  pitcher in the world. So barring an injury I think the Pirates need to just put up with the starting pitching they have right now and hope that Glasnow and Taillon will be here soon.

Youth movement responsible for Penguins inspired play

The Pittsburgh Penguins defeated the New York Rangers 6-3 today to advance to the second round of the NHL playoffs. The Penguins really got hot at the end of the season and turned their year around, storming into the playoffs on an impressive hot streak.

What is responsible for this change? Youth. The Penguins have brought up a bunch of young, talented players this year that have contributed a lot in the bottom lineup, as opposed to years past when every depth player on the Pens' roster was 30-something.

Conor Sheary (23), Bryan Rust (23), Tom Kuhnhackl (24), Olli Maatta (21), Brian Dumoulin (24) and Matt Murray (21) all played huge parts in this series win over the Rangers and look to be consistent contributors for years to come.

With actually competent bottom-six forwards and three solid defense lines the Penguins are a scary team in this year's playoffs and the young guys have played a huge part in that.

Source on Inspiration: Typography Design

One thing I really enjoy, design-wise, is when type is used to create a design element. A lot of company logos use certain letters or typography in such ways that they create a part of their logo or just some subtle message. I'm going to go through a few of my favorite typography design examples and try to explain why I like them so much.

I'm going to start with Tostitos's logo. You probably already know this, but the last two T's in the word Tostitos are supposed to be people dipping chips into a bowl that is the dot one the I. I like this because it is so subtle that most people probably don't see it right away, but at the same time it's so genius because it shows how Tostitos wants people to use their products.

 A lot of people probably already know this one too, but the white space between the E and the X in the FedEx logo creates an arrow. This one is extremely subtle, but still pretty cool. It just shows that FedEx moves stuff from one place to another using the white space between letters.

Hilary Clinton's campaign logo uses something similar, albeit not at all subtly. Here I believe that it's supposed to represent that Hilary is going to move the country forward. I'll leave my own political views out of this post, but I personal believe that Hilary has the best logo out of all the candidates.

Finally, the absolute best one is Amazon's logo. This is one that I would expect not a lot of people have noticed. The arrow under the word amazon starts at the A and ends at the Z, and Amazon likes to say that they ship everything "form A to Z." It's so stinking subtle and clever you probably never even noticed it, but it's amazing.

In conclusion, I get way too excited over clever uses of typography and am prone to geeking out whenever someone uses type to in new and creative ways.

Source of Inspiration: PSAC Blue

"PSAC Blue" is the official color of the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference. Its RGB values are R = 0, G = 73, B = 144. This is another color that I often use when designing things for The Rocket. Slippery Rock is a member of the PSAC and so I often use this color when talking about SRU in respect to the other PSAC schools. I like this color because I think it's a really good looking shade of blue. I also think it works very well as a background with white text or visa versa.

This is the PSAC logo and you can see the PSAC blue color is used throughout.

This is a graphic I made this week that was posted to The Rocket's Twitter. This particular athlete won a weekly award from the PSAC and so I used the PSAC blue color when talking about that award. I then used pantone 342 (Slippery Rock green) when talking about her individually.






I also use PSAC blue throughout the print editions of the newspaper, mainly when talking about things that happen in the conference or conference standings.

Source of Inspiration: Pantone 342

Pantone 342, aka "Slippery Rock Green". Much like BaseOne font, Pantone 342 is something that I use extensively while working for The Rocket. Pantone 342 is the official color of Slippery Rock University and is used almost anytime anything regarding the university is made. I actually think that Pantone 342 is the color I use most often in my designs. I completely would never have used it if I did not come to SRU and I probably would never even have explore the pantone series of color swatches if not for Pantone 342. The pantone series are basically the only colors I use anymore.

Here are some examples of my use of Pantone 342.

Source of inspiration: BaseOne font

BaseOne if a font that I found while working in my job as Assistant Sports Editor for The Rocket. Since finding this font I have used it many times for The Rocket, both for publication design and for web-based graphics. I use BaseOne mainly as a headline or title font and try to not have too much text at once in BaseOne. I think it works well as a title font because it stands out. This font is sans-serif and exclusively capital letters so it is easy to read when used as a title or headline and BaseOne very much just looks like a sports font. I use this font in a variety of colors and on a variety of backgrounds, even placed on photographs.

This is a graphic I made that was posted to The Rocket's Twitter account. Here I use BaseOne as a title and to show scores. I have the text white with a black stroke on  green background and as you can see it is easily readable.








This is another graphic that was posted on Twitter. This time I used BaseOne in three different colors and in three different ways on a photo background. First I used it again as a title font in blue with a white stoke to indicate what the information on this graphic is. Then I use it more as a body font for the list, this time a white color with a black stroke to keep it readable against the photo. Finally, I have the words "Slippery Rock" in green with a white stroke to make it stand out and catch the viewers'  eyes.


Examples of how I use BaseOne in p the print publication can be seen every week on page C-2 of every copy of The Rocket. On that page there is a list of team standings for every sports where I use BaseOne again as the title of the list and as a title for each sport.

My thoughts on the Pirates' starting line-ups

A lot of people have been talking about the Pirates' starting line-ups this week. Here are my thoughts on the subject.

VS RHP

John Jaso - 1B
Andrew McCutchen - CF
Starling Marte - LF
Jung-Ho Kang - 3B
Josh Harrison - 2B
Gregory Polanco - RF
Francisco Cervelli - C
Jordy Mercer - SS
Pitcher

This is the line-up that Clint Hurdle has been going with during Spring Training and I think it's what he'll do for the regular season as well. Batting McCutchen second means he won't bat with two outs and nobody on as much as before and Marte's speed means that if Cutch or Jaso manage to get on opponents most likely won't be able to double him off. Kang is the best power threat on the team and Harrison and Polanco have shown the ability to drive in runs in clutch situations.

VS LHP

Josh Harrison - 2B
Andrew McCutchen - CF
Starling Marte - LF
Jung-Ho Kang - 3B
Francisco Cervelli - C
David Freese - 1B
Michael Morse - RF
Jordy Mercer - SS
Pitcher

I think Freese will push Morse out of the first base platoon, freeing him up to platoon with Polanco in right. Morse is a poor defender, but Hurdle is not stranger to defensive subs and Morse's bat vs lefties well makes up for the difference.

Jamie Dixon's leaving Pitt and that's okay

It seems like forever ago when Jamie Dixon wasn't coaching Pitt Basketball. Dixon was named the the Head coach of the Pitt Panthers in 2003 after spending four years as an assistant. Since taking over the program, Dixon compiled a 328-123 record and 11 NCAA tournament appearances in 13 years. Despite this success Dixon made the decision earlier this week to take over the head coaching job at his Alma Mater, TCU. TCU basketball is in a bad place, and just finished a 12-21 season.

So Dixon is a good coach who's had a fair amount off success and has been here for more than a decade and now he's leaving to go to a worse program, so why aren't more people sad to see him go?

The short answer is that Dixon has never had a lot of success in the NCAA tournament and is generally see as having underachieving teams. Dixon only ever made it to three Sweet Sixteens and one Elite Eight. Dixon also has never recruited more than two ESPN top 100 players in one year.

Dixon's win totals per year have also been on a downward trend ever since his first year.

In my opinion Jamie Dixon is a good, not great, basketball coach and there are other, better options out there (Talking about you Sean Miller). I think Pitt might be in for a rough couple of years going forward, but ultimately I think Athletic Director Scott Barnes will find the right man for the job.

Is Sidney Crosby regressing?

It is no surprise that Sidney Crosby had a really rough start to the season, but has he really lost his touch as some would suggest? I say no, that's insane and here's why:

Even in one of the 'worst' seasons of his career Crosby has scored over 30 goals, is fifth in the NHL in points, ninth in goals and 12th in assists. He averages 1.33 points per game in his career, but he is only (only being used loosely) averaging 1.04 points per game in the 2015-16 season.

Crosby's numbers are down a little but this year, but I think I know why. The short answer is unsuitability. The Penguins have had two different head coaches this year and Crosby hasn't had
the same wingers on his line almost all year.

Dan Bylsma coached Sidney for most of his career and he was on a line with Pascal Dupree and Chris Kunitz for a number of year.

This year the Penguins fired their then head coach Mike Johnston and brought in Mike Sullivan. Sidney also hasn't had a consistent line at all. He's played with Kunitz, Phil Kessel, Carl Hagelin and Patric Hornqvist, among others, in a large number of different  combinations. With different coaches and a revolving door of wingers, any player would struggle to find consistency.

Lately we have seen Crosby start to return to his old form and I think it's because he's had enough time to get used to what Sullivan's system and how his line-mates play. So Sidney Crosby is not regressing, not yet at least.

Top Ten Outfields in Baseball

*This list is based off the 2016 RotoChamp.com player projections.

1. Colorado Rockies 

The Rockies have a somewhat unfair offensive advantage playing at Coors Field, but the outfield of Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzales and Gerardo Parra still top this list. Colorado shipped Corey Dickerson off to the Rays and signed Parra to fill his spot this off-season. RotoChamp projects great production out of all three of them in 2016. Blackmon is projected to hit .281 with 16 HR and 73 RBI, CarGo to hit .272 with 32 HR and 85 RBI and Parra to hit .288 with 14 HR and 62 RBI. 

2. Washington Nationals

Headlined by the reigning NL MVP the Nationals outfield of Bryce Harper, Ben Revere and Jayson Werth are the runners up on this list. Harper is projected to have another amazing year, hitting .313, 36 HR, and 101 RBI. Revere is projected to bat .336 with two home runs and 53 RBI and Werth to hit .268 with 14 HR and 51 RBI.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates

Speed and defense is the name of the game for Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco in the Bucs' outfield and they are very good at both. They are projected to steal a combined 75 bases and Marte and McCutchen are previous Gold-Glove winners. McCutchen is projected to hit .301 with 24 HR and 86 RBI, Marte to bat .287 with 16 HR and 72 RBI and Polanco to hit .255 with 10 HR and 60 RBI.

4. Miami Marlins

When healthy, Giancarlo Stanton is the purest power hitter in the game, paired with Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna the Marlin's outfielders come in fourth on the list. Stanton is projected to mash to the tune of a .273 average with 40 HR and 97 RBI, Yelich to hit .292 with 8 HR and 61 RBI and Ozuna to hit .263 with 15 HR and 62 RBI.

5. San Francisco Giants

It's an even numbered year so the Giants will probably win the World Series, but in terms of this list they only come in fifth. Denard Span, Hunter Pence and Gregor Blanco will all be very solid both offensively and defensively. The projections have Span hitting .285 with 5 HR and 47 RBI, Pence .275 with 20 HR and 74 RBI and Blanco .277 with 4 HR and 33 RBI.

6. Chicago Cubs

With the big acquisition of Jayson Heyward in the off-season and their sneaky resigning of Dexter Fowler the Cubs really tried to add talent this winter. Paired with Kyle Schwarber who it looks like will be moving to the outfield full time the Cubs come in sixth on this list. Heyward is project to lead the group with a .281 average, 13 HR and 63 RBI, Fowler is projected to hit .264 with 12 HR and 51 RBI and Schwarber to hit .257 with 25 HR and 74 RBI.

7. Los Angeles Dodgers

How good the Dodgers outfield will end up being is going to depend on if Joc Peterson and Yasiel Puig can play up to their full potentials. Along with veteran Andre Ethier this goupr has the potential to justify being ranked seventh on this list. Peterson is projected to hit .222 with 27 HR and 73 RBI, Puig to hit .283 with 18 HR and 70 RBI and Ethier to hit .282 with 10 HR and 45 RBI.

8. Los Angeles Angels

 You knew the team that has Mike Trout was going to make this list. Trout and Cole Calhoun power the Angels outfield to eighth on the list, while Daniel Nava kind of holds them back. Trout is projected to mash in 2016 with a .297 average, 35 HR and 102 RBI, Calhoun to hit .264 with 22 HR and 77 RBI and Nava to bat .244 with 3 HR and 21 RBI.

9. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks added a ton of talent this off-season, but their out-field lacks any one standout player to rank higher than ninth on this list. A.J. Pollock, David Peralta and Yasmany Tomas are all solid players, but none of them are really a superstar. Pollock is projected to hit .300 to go along with 16 HR and 71 RBI, Peralta to hit .297 with 14 HR and 64 RBI and Tomas to hit .269 with 7 HR and 37 RBI.

10. New York Mets

The Mets have the opposite problem as the Arizona, they have a top-tier talent in Yoenis Cespedes but a couple of average guys flanking him in Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto. Cespedes is projected to hit .278 with 29 HR and 92 RBI, Granderson to hit .245 with 23 HR and 74 RBI and Conforto to bat .269 with 18 HR and 70 RBI.

Full projections for every MLB team can be found at http://rotochamp.com/default.aspx.

Should the Pirates trade for Chris Sale?

I am going to start this off by saying this is strictly a hypothetical scenario as I don't think the White Sox will ever want to trade Sale. I had a joking back-and-forth with noted Pirates blogger Brian McElhinny on Twitter today when he accidentally typed 'sale' instead of 'sell' and I jokingly asked if he was hinting at a Chris Sale trade.

That got me to wondering if a Chris Sale trade would even make sense for the Pirates to do. Assuming that the White Sox would be crazy enough to deal Chris Sale let's take a look at what the Pirates would have to give up in order to get him and how he would fit on the Pirates' roster

The White Sox have a fairly weak farm system, with only two prospects on MLB.com's top 100 list. They have needs in the outfield, at catcher and for pitching. The Sox would most likely want three of the Pirate's top five prospects. I think the White Sox would want number one Pirates' prospect Tyler Glasnow, number two Austin Meadows and number five Reese McGuire. Glasnow is ranked number 10 on the top 100 list and the number two ranked right handed pitching prospect. Glasnow would immediately become the White Sox number one prospect and will most likely make his major league debut in 2016. Meadows in the Pirates' top ranked position player and in the number 20 overall and number four outfield prospect. Meadows would become the White Sox top position prospect. Finally, McGuire is the fourth ranked catcher prospect and would be the White Sox fifth best prospect behind Glasnow, Meadows, pitcher Carson Fulmer and shortstop Tim Anderson.

In recent years Pittsburgh has shown a reluctance to trade away prospects for big league talent, but I think their farm system could survive losing these three prospects. The Pirates have more top pitching prospects in Jameson Taillon (#4 Pirates, #54 overall) and Nick Kingham (#12 Pirates). They have outfield prospects behind Meadows in Harold Ramirez (#6 Pirates) and Willy Garcia (#13 Pirates). And they have Elias Diaz, the number 6 ranked catcher prospect and number eight ranked Pirates Prospect to fill in for McGuire.

Some might see this as giving up too much for one player, but the Pirates would still get to keep firstbase prospect Josh Bell, shortstop Alen Hanson and the previously mentioned Taillon to keep the farm system strong.

On to how Sale would fit with the Pirates' roster, let's start with payroll. Sale's current contract has him signed through the 2019 season with club options in 2018-19. Sale stands to make $9.15, $12, $12.5 and $15 million during those years. That makes him the third highest paid player in 2016 and 2017, the second highest paid in 2018 and the highest paid currently under contract in 2019. Sale's contract would also push the Pirates' up to about $95 million, which would move them above the Oakland A's with the 23rd highest payroll. The team would also most likely receive a compensation draft pick in 2020 if they don;t resign Sale and he signs somewhere else, which he probably would.

Sale would join Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano at the top of the Pirates' rotation to make a deadly trio. Cole (19 wins, 2.60 ERA, 208 innings, 202 strikeouts), Liriano (12 wins, 3.38 ERA, 186.2 innings, 205 strikeouts) and Sale (13 wins, 3.41 ERA 208.2 innings, 274 strikeouts) would make arguably the best trio of starting pitchers in the league, and realistically carry the team to possibly a division title. The downside is that would put four lefties in the Pirates' starting rotation with Liriano, Sale, John Niese and Jeff Locke.

In conclusion Sale would be an outstanding addition to a Pirates' starting rotation that is full of question marks. However, the Pirates' would have to give up three of their best prospects and tie up a large portion of their payroll just for one player. The White Sox would also have to basically give up on winning in 2016 and be willing to bet on a couple of prospects for the future. I don't think this trade could ever happen and I don't even think it should. The Pirates would have to give up too much in terms of prospects and payroll for only four years of Chris Sale.

Are NFL teams overpaying for bad QB's?

Joe Flacco and Sam Bradford will be among th highest paid QB's in the NFL in 2016

This week we have seen a couple of below-average quarterbacks be signed to massive contracts. Sam Bradford was re-signed by the Eagles to a two-year $36 million dollar contract Tuesday and the Ravens gave Joe Flacco a three-year, $66.4 million extension with a $40 million signing bonus that puts him under team control through the 2021 season. However you may feel about Flacco and Bradford, statistically speaking they were both well below average in 2015. Out of 34 qualified QB's Bradford was 26th and Flacco was 30th in terms of quarterback rating. This leaves me wonder what in the world were those teams thinking with these contracts?

All the article I have been reading are defending these contracts, saying Flacco is better than his stats because he was hurt last year and his receivers were not good and Bradford will play better under a new head coach not named Chip Kelly. I say those are some pretty big unrealistic assumptions to make and to commit that much money to. I am going to look at each of these players' track records and try and show how these contracts make no sense.

Since being taken with the first overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft Sam Bradford has been thoroughly underwhelming. Bradford has only ever passed for more than 20 touchdowns once and has thrown double digit interceptions in all but two season in which he did not even play in ten games. He has a career 81.1 QBR and has battled injuries his entire career and missed the 2014 season entirely.

Since winning the Super Bowl in 2012 Joe Flacco has not lived up to the massive six-year deal the Ravens then signed him to. Prior to winning the Super Bowl Flacco had a career 86.3 QBR and after winning the super bowl he has a 82.4 QBR. He also has a 1.3 TD/INT ratio in that time.

Now these certainly are not horrible stats, they are capable NFL starters and can win a team games. However these contracts make Bradford and Flacoo some of the highest paid quarterbacks in the entire league.

Below is a comparison between 2015 QBR and salary/year for the 15 highest paid QB's.

QB	Salary/year	NFL rank	2015 QBR	NFL rank	Salary-QBR diff.**
Joe Flacco	$22,133,333	1	83.1	30	29
Aaron Rodgers	$22,000,000	2	92.7	15	13
Russell Wilson	$21,900,000	3	110.1	1	-2
Ben Roethlisberger	$21,850,000	4	94.5	11	7
Eli Manning	$21,000,000	5	93.6	13	8
Philip Rivers	$20,812,500	6	93.8	12	6
Cam Newton	$20,760,000	7	99.4	8	1
Matt Ryan	$20,750,000	8	89	20	12
Drew Brees	$20,000,000	9	101	6	-3
Kirk Cousins	$19,953,000	10	101.6	5	-5
Ryan Tannehill	$19,250,000	11	88.7	21	11
Colin Kaepernick	$19,000,000	12	78.5	31	19
Jay Cutler	$18,100,000	13	92.3	16	3
Sam Bradford	$18,000,000	14	86.4	26	12
Matt Staford*	$17,666,667	16	97	9	-6

*Tony Romo was emitted because he did not qualify for the 2015 QBR standings

**Negative numbers indicate that player is underpaid

As you can see Flacoo is horribly overpaid and Bradford is right up there too. Now I am not saying that both of these players can't improve in 2016 I am just saying that these teams probably should not have spent so much money on so big a risk. At least if Bradford busts the Eagles only have him for two years. The Ravens are stuck with Flacco until 2021 and he is already 31.

Predicting the Pirates' Top Prospects' Offense in the Majors

Pirates' number three overall prospect Josh Bell

Monday was the Pittsburgh Pirates' annual Black-and-Gold scrimmage where many of the team's best prospects saw playing time against one another. Headlining the group of position players were first baseman Josh Bell and second baseman Alen Hanson. MLB.com ranks Bell as the Pirates' third best prospect and Hanson as the number five prospect. Both may finally make their highly-anticipated major league debuts in 2016 with Hanson having a chance to break Spring Training with the big league team and Bell expected to be ready for a call-up by mid season. 

Thinking about this made me wonder just how top-prospects like Hanson and Bell would preform in the majors and so I went about predicting this (I also threw in number 12 overall prospect Willy Garcia and number 14 prospect Elias Diaz as they are both in triple-A and could be called up this season). Using each of these players' minor league numbers and trends of how recent Pirates top-prospects made the jump to the big leagues I came up with a way of predicting what each prospects' batting average and on-base-percentage would be in the majors.I looked at things like how often each player strikes out (SO%), draws a walk (BB%) and batting average of balls put in play (BABIP). These are seen as 'relatively' consistent offensive numbers for players regardless of what level they are playing at. 

Of course for the prospects I only have their minor league numbers and the majors are much more difficult than the minors so I used how recent Pirates top-prospects made the jump. I looked at the differences in SO%, BB%, and BABIP between the minors and majors for Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez. I then found the average difference for all five of these players and applied that to the prospects' numbers to replicate their jumping to the big leagues. 

	SO%		BB%		BABIP		SO% diff.		BB% diff.		BABIP diff.
McCutchen	17.3		12.1		0.373		1.7		2.2		0.026
Minors	15.6		9.9		0.347
Marte	22.9		4.8		0.379		2.9		-0.2		-0.008
Minors	20		5		0.387
Polanco	18.7		8.8		0.314		3.1		-0.7		-0.031
Minors	15.6		9.5		0.346
Walker	17.3		8.1		0.337		1.7		1.7		0.007
Minors	15.6		6.4		0.33
Alvarez	29.1		9.3		0.349		4.4		-3.6		-0.041
Minors	24.6		12.9		0.39

The averages from these numbers were a 2.8% increase in SO%, a .14% decrease in BB% and a .010 decrease in BABIP for the jump from the minors to the majors.

Now for the prospects. 

Bell has a career 14.2 SO%, 9.4 BB% and a .364 BABIP in the minors. Adding in the adjusters I calculated from above that translates to a major league SO% of 17, a BB% of 9.2 and a BABIP of .354. 

Hanson has a 16.8 SO%, 7.7BB% and a .350 BABIP in the minors and I predict a 19.6 SO%, 7.6 BB% and a .340 BABIP in the majors. 

Garcia numbers are 26.6 SO%, 5.4 BB% and a .366 BABIP in the minors and 29.4 SO%, 5.2 BB% and a .357 BABIP for the majors.

Diaz has 15.6 SO%, 8.3BB%, and a .311 BABIP in the minors and an adjusted 18.4 SO%, 8.2 BB% and .302 BABIP for the majors.

I applied these numbers to a baseline of 100 plate appearances and was able to calculate each prospects hits, strike outs and walks per 100 plate appearances. My predictions are as follows;

	Hits/100 PA		SO/100 PA		BB/100 PA		Batting Average		On-base-percentage
Josh Bell	26.3		17		9.2		0.289		0.355
Alen Hanson	24.6		19.6		7.6		0.266		0.322
Willy Garcia	23.3		29.4		5.2		0.245		0.285
Elias Diaz	22		18.4		8.2		0.24		0.302

The numbers I ended with go along with what I expected. Bell has the best batting average and on-base-percentage with Hanson firmly in second place. Garcia is predicted to hit for a better average than Diaz, but Diaz is predicted to get on base more often.

*This was a very simple prediction using rough numbers and a lot of assumption, so these numbers most likely have a large margin of error. However I just did this very quickly and was pleased with the results I got. If you want to look at the Excel document I used with all the number you can follow this link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzW1_yH7pmjFczdwcDBQdENGQWs/view?usp=sharing 

All the minor/major league stats I used were from Baseball-Reference.com

2016 NFL Draft - Top 10 Wide Receiver Prospects

The 2016 wide receiver class is filled with size, speed and some great red-zone targets. As is the case with every wide receiver class, how many of these guys will be able to continue developing their skills and stick in the NFL?

For this list I  looked at each player's 2015 and career statistics to make a preliminary group of 17 draft eligible QB's. From there I watched 3 game films for every WR on the list. One good game, one bad game and one average game. I wrote down each players' strengths and weaknesses and ended at this list.

This list is not meant to represent the order in which I think these players will be drafted, just how talented I think they are at the wide receiver position right now. 

1. Laquon Treadwell - Ole Miss

Laquon Treadwell is the best prospect of group in my opinion. I think he can be a legitimate number one receiver in the NFL from day one. He's got the size at 6'2", the hands (82 receptions in 2015) and the ability to be an impact receiver and a big red-zone threat at the next level. 
Predicted Draft Position: Round 1 - Los Angeles Rams

2. Corey Coleman - Baylor

Corey Coleman scored twenty touchdowns in 2016. That's two-zero. even in Baylor's high-scoring pass happy offense that is super impressive. Coleman has fantastic hands and is extremely advanced at route-running. He is going to make a very good slot receiver in the NFL.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 2 - Cleveland Browns

3. Tyler Boyd - Pittsburgh

Tyler Boyd has the best hands in college football and it isn't even close. He's an explosive play maker that can also make an impact in the return game. He's a little raw but I think he can develop into a good NFL receiver.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 1 - Minnesota Vikings

4. Aaron Burbridge - Michigan State

Aaron Burbridge is a big, physical receiver who uses his body very well to box out defenders. He doesn't have great speed and can't make many people miss, but with his hands and route-running ability I think he can play on the outside at the next level.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 4 - Detroit Lions

5. Sterling Shepard - Oklahoma

I think Sterling Shepard is the best route-runner on this list. He has slot receiver size, great hands and good enough speed to make an impact in the league.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 3 - Cincinnati Bengals

6. De'Runnya Wilson - Mississippi State

Aside from having the best name on the list, De'Runnya Wilson is also the tallest receiver at 6'4". Wilson is really good at using his size to his ability. He boxes out defenders and can just straight up jump over them if he needs to. He'll be a force in the red-zone in the NFL.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 3 - Atlanta Falcons

7. Michael Thomas - Ohio State

Michael Thomas is a prototypical pro receiver. He's 6'3", has good hands and good speed and runs good routes. The reason he isn't high on this list however is because he doesn't do one thing really well, he is just good at everything.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 2 - San Francisco 49ers

8. Josh Doctson - TCU 

You could say Josh Doctson is the fastest in the class and not that many people would disagree with you. He's a size/speed guy who has okay hands and only runs about three different routes. If he can consistently get past corners in the NFL he'll be a pretty good receiver.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 2 - Baltimore Ravens

9. Kenny Lawler - Cal

Kenny Lawler is kind of like Thomas where he just does every thing well. His best trait is his hands so if he can refine his route-running he can make contributions to a team.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 4 - Buffalo Bills

10. Tajae Sharpe - UMass

Tajae Sharpe led the nation in 2015 with 111 receptions.No one else even came close to that. He was the best receiver on a small-school team that liked to pass the ball. He needs to bulk and and play more physically to make it at the next level. But he has good skills and I think he will end up being a late-round steal.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 6 - Kansas City Chiefs

Other draftees:
Will Fuller - Notre Dame
He's a good receiver that doesn't have great size or great speed. Predicted Round: 4/5
Rashad Higgins - Colorado
A big, slow receiver with good hands and that makes plays in the red-zone. Predicted Round: 5/6

Life after Heath Miller

On Friday, February 19th Steelers Nation received some of the saddest news in recent memory. The 11-year Steeler and fan-favorite tight end, Heath Miller, decided to hang up his cleats and call it a career. While Miller's retirement will undoubtedly leave a hole in many Steelers' fans' hearts it might leave an even bigger hole in the Steelers' roster.

Heath was the ultimate Steeler, a hard working, blue-collared grinder who did his job well and stayed out of the media. He was also perhaps the game's best two-way tight end. In the days of receiver/tight end hybrids like Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates who catch more passes than then they do make blocks, Miller was unique. Heath was just as happy to throw a block to spring a running back as he was to catch a touchdown. He never put up huge offensive number but Heath was a large part of what the Steeler's did on offense. And now the question is how will they replace him.

As I see it there are three different ways to replace a player like Heath Miller; sign someone in free agency, select a player in the draft or use the guys already on the roster. I'm going to explore each of these options and see who the Steelers could bring in to help at tight end.


Free Agency

If there's one thing the Steeler's don't do it's spending a lot of money signing free agents. However in this case the team might be a little more willing to loosen their wallets. In the tight end free agent class there a few guys who I believe could adequately fill the hole left by Miller.

Jared Cook -  Good receiver tagged as an 'under performer.' Expensive at $8 mil, but would add an interesting weapon to an already potent Steelers' offense.

Jermaine Gresham - Good all around 27-year-old TE, still a little pricey at $3 mil.

Andrew Quarless - More receiver than blocker, 27 and about $2 mil.

Dwayne Allen - Best option for the team in my opinion. Good blocker and receiver, young at 25 and cheap at $1.75 mil.

Coby Fleener - Another good, young, cheap TE. Not exactly starting caliber though.

Rhett Ellison - 27, fantastic blocker doesn't do much else.

Clay Harbor - Average two way TE.

Zach Miller - Older at 31, but a good and productive two way player. Would be a good pick-up.

Tony Moeaki - Below average, dirt cheap.

Cook and Allen could probably come in and be the starter from day one. Fleener and Miller most likely would not be able to handle full time starting duties but they would be good complements to the TEs already on the team.


The Draft

The Steelers haven't had to draft a tight end in the early rounds since taking Miller 13th overall in 2005. This year's draft is severely lacking in tight end talent, with only a few players that could make it as future starters.

Hunter Henry (Arkansas) - The best in the class by far. Has good size, soft hands and blocks well. Could contribute from day one.

Austin Hooper (Stanford) - A good player that would have to work on refining a few areas of his game.

Nick Vannett (Ohio State) - Would probably need a year or so to develop before making any major contributions. but hey, the Steelers love taking former Buckeyes.

Henry would be able to compete for the starting job right out of training camp, but the team would most likely have to use their first-round pick in order to select him. Vannett has starting potential but would need time to develop before being a complete TE.


Already on the roster

Matt Spaeth - Maybe the best blocking TE in the game, not much for running routes and catching passes though.

Jesse James - Showed good flashes in his rookie year. Needs to continue to improve his blocking before he could be considered a starting caliber player.

Xavier Grimble - was unable to crack the roster after signing as an undrafted free agent last year.

Rob Blanchflower - An unimpressive former seventh round pick. Probably won't even make the team out of training camp.

James and Spaeth could probably combine to split tight end duties next season but that would leave the team very thin at that position. James might develop into a starter, but most likely won't be at that point by next season.


Conclusion

I don't think the Steelers will be able to replace Heath Miller by bringing in any one player. While Jared Cook could make a real impact on offense I think he is way out of the team's price range. In the end my favorite move would be signing the young Dwayne Allen to a long term deal. If not that than signing either Coby Fleener or Zach Miller to compliment the players already on the roster could also be a good option. I also like drafting either Hunter Henry in the first round or Nick Vannett in the third round. In any case I fully expect the Steelers to make a move to improve the position.

Heath Miller will leave a lasting legacy in Pittsburgh and it will be difficult to replace what he did for the Steelers, but eventually the team will find a solution. But for now, enjoy your retirement HEEEEEEEEATH.

Is John Jaso an upgrade over Pedro Alvarez?

On Dec. 2, 2015 the Pittsburgh Pirates non-tendered first baseman Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez spent parts of six years with the Pirates but his poor defense and frustrating approach at the plate ultimately led the club to part ways with the 29 year old slugger. 

The departure of Alvarez left a hole at first base with the only other first basemen on the Pirates' 40-man roster being the 6'5" giant Michael Morse, the offensively inept Sean Rodriquez, career minor-leaguer Jake Goebbert and top prospet Josh Bell. Morse can't handle full time duties at first, Rodriquez profiles best as a utility player, Goebbert is unproven in the majors and Bell likely needs at least one more year in Triple-A before he can make the jump to the majors. Enter one John Jaso.

The Pirates signed John Jaso on Dec. 23 to a two year, $8 mil. contract to serve as the left-handed half of their first base platoon. One problem though, Jaso, a former catcher/left fielder, has only logged a total of five innings playing first base in the majors. 

As the Pirates attempt to convert another player to first base I ask myself, Is Jaso reall an upgrade over Alvarez? And if so by how much? To answer these questions I am going to be comparing both players in three areas; offense, defense and price.

Offense

John Jaso and Pedro Alvarez are about as different as two major league hitters could be. Alvarez is a good of a power hitter as you'll find in the game today. In six years (2500 at bats) in Pittsburgh Alvarez hit 131 home runs with a .441 slugging percentage. However he did not get on base consistently (career .236 batting average, .309 OBP) and struck out way too much (809 strikeouts in 2784 plate appearances). Jaso on the other hand hits for almost no power (37 career HR in seven years) and is a more patient hitter that focuses on getting on base (career .263 BA, .361 OBP). 

So which one is better? To answer that I want to look more closely at their hitting stats. They have both been used primarily as left-handed platoon hitters in their careers so I will look at their stats specifically against right-handed pitching. Alvarez is really good versus righties, slashing .246/.320/.473 against them in his career. Jaso also rakes against right-handers, slashing .274/.368/.429 in his career.

I am going to call this one a wash. It is hard to compare these two players' offensive skill sets because they are so different. Alvarez is a middle of the line-up power bat who drives in runs while Jaso and his high on-base-percentage fit better at the top of the order. They both have their strengths and weaknesses and can be productive big league hitters.

Defense

Alvarez had a historically bad season defensively last year as he made the transition from third to first, committing 23 errors at his new position. Jaso is more of an unknown at the position, having only ever played five total innings at first. 

Below is two videos from piratesprospects.com of first base fielding drills from Jan. 11 and Feb. 17. The first video includes Jaso, Jake Goebbert and Josh Bell taking grounders. Goebbert is clearly the most comfortable of the three, but Bell and Jaso show good instincts. I think it's a good sign to see Jaso getting time in at first so early before the start of the season. the second video is Just Jaso receiving throw at first. He drops a couple but overall it is pretty encouraging.

For this comparison I think it is appropriate to look that the kind of fielders these two were before they attempted the transition to first base. Alvarez has always been a below-average fielder, committing 110 errors in five seasons as the Pirates' third baseman. Jaso, on the other hand, committing a mere 13 errors in six seasons as a catcher and no errors in 96 innings in the outfield. 

Based on their career numbers I am going to give the edge here to Jaso. I'm also giving Jaso the benefit of the doubt and assume that he probably isn't going to commit anywhere close the the 23 errors Alvarez made in 2015.

Price

This is an easy one as Jaso will make $4 million for each of the next two years while Alvarez was projected to make $8.1 million in arbitration for 2016.

For comparable offensive value and presumably better defense for half the cost and double the years I am going to say that John Jaso is indeed an upgrade over Pedro Alvarez. While Pedro's power number will be difficult to replace I think Jaso's superior on base percentage will play very well in the Pirates' line-up. Pair that with improved defense at a lower price I think the Pirates' acquisition of John Jaso may prove to be one of the best value off-season pick-ups of any team.

2016 NFL Draft - Top 10 Quarterback Prospects

Despite lacking any big name talent like Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston, the 2016 class of quarterbacks still has some interesting prospects. With the Cleveland Browns almost certainly picking a quarterback with the second overall pick who will they go with?

For this list I  looked at each player's 2015 and career statistics to make a preliminary group of 17 draft eligible QB's. From there I watched 3 game films for every QB on the list. One good game, one bad game and one average game. I wrote down each players' strengths and weaknesses and ended at this list.

This list is not meant to represent the order in which I think these players will be drafted, just how talented I think they are at the quarterback position right now.


1. Jared Goff - California

Jared Goff got better every year he as at California and as a result put up ridiculous numbers in his junior season. Throwing for 4719 yards and 43 touchdowns makes Goff the number one QB on my list. Goff showed that he can make any throw on the field, go through his progression at a pro-caliber level and he showed that he can command on offense. Some weaknesses in Goff's game are that he has trouble overthrowing receivers on deep passes and he is almost no threat outside of the pocket. I see Goff as needing to sit his first year in the league in order to completely learn how to run a pro-style offense and how to handle NFL defenses. I think he has the highest ceiling in the class and could develop into a superstar in the right setting.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 1 #2 overall - Cleveland Browns

2. Connor Cook - Michigan State

I like Connor Cook more than most and I'm willing to admit that. MSU runs a pro-style offense that Cook excelled in. While Cook's stats won't jump off the page at you (3131 yards, 24 touchdowns) he was consistent and solid (if not unspectacular) for one of the nation's best teams in one of the nation's toughest conferences. A poor outing against Alabama in the College Football Playoffs and injury concerns have raised red flags for some people but I still see Cook as one of the premier quarterback prospects in the draft. That being said Cook won't be able to win games by himself in the NFL and will likely need to a team with pieces already in place to have success.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 2 #43/45 overall - Los Angeles Rams

3. Paxton Lynch - Memphis

Paxton Lynch burst onto the scene in 2015 with a bang, throwing for 3776 yards and 28 touchdowns while leading Memphis to a 9-4 record. Lynch boasts what might be the strongest arm in the class and couples that arm strength with above average downfield accuracy. He also has enough mobility to make opposing defenses worry about him pulling the ball down and taking off. In order to have success at the next level he is going to have to refine his accuracy and learn how to go through his progression faster. If he finds himself in an offense that likes to push the ball down field I think he could be a hit.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 1 #13 overall - Philadelphia Eagles

4. Dak Prescott - Mississippi State

The one time Heisman favorite will end up being the best dual-threat quarterback in the class in my opinion. Prescott is a big, powerful runner that can sling the ball downfield. He threw for 3793 yards and 29 touchdowns in his senior season and his ability to run can really open things up in the play-action passing game. If he can improve his deep ball accuracy I think he has a chance of sticking in the NFL as a starter.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 4 #102 overall - San Francisco 49ers

5. Brandon Doughty - Western Kentucky

The small school QB that lead the nation with 5055 passing yards and 48 touchdowns. Brandon Doughty is suburbly accurate and is a good decision maker. Although as a fifth-year senior with a relatively weak arm I see him more as a back-up at the next level than a team's long-term solution.  He is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the class and could be a late round steal for a team looking for a back-up.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 5 #140 overall - New Orleans Saints

6. Kevin Hogan - Stanford

Coming out of the same program as Andrew Luck, Kevin Hogan's play reminds me a lot of Luck. Hogan has a strong, accurate arm and has the athleticism to escape the pocket and make plays with his legs. The senior racked up 2867 yards and 27 touchdowns in his final year, showing great red-zone production. Unlike Luck however Hogan panics under pressure and must work on handling blitzes if he wants to succeed in the NFL.
Predicted Draft Position: Round  5 #143 overall - Indianapolis Colts

7. Carson Wentz - North Dakota State

Maybe the biggest risk in the quarterback class, Carson Wentz has caught a lot of analysts eyes with his exciting play and wining ways, but to me he is just another FCS quarterback. While Wentz has NFL-caliber arm talent he tends to stare down his receivers and usually only makes one read before either checking the ball down or taking off. That works at the FCS level put not in the pros. If he can work on those problems though I think he could be a productive NFL quarterback.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 1 #4 overall - Dallas Cowboys

8. Christian Hackenberg - Penn State

Has anyone in recent memory had a more disappointing college career than Christian Hackenberg? The number one quarterback out of high school had a great freshman season under head coach Bill O'Brien. After O'Brien left to coach in the pros Hackenberg seemingly fell apart, never putting up the big number everyone thought he could. That being siad Hackenberg has a lot of good qualities for a pro-level QB. He moves well in the pocket, goes through his progression well and can be accurate when given the time. The problem was he played behind a horrible offensive line at Penn State and was never given that time. Behind a good O-line (and being reunited with Bill O'Brien) I think Hackenberg just might make it in the NFL.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 2 #22 overall - Houston Texans

9. Cardale Jones - Ohio State

Another Big 10 quarterback with professional aspirations, might have been better off declaring for the draft following his national championship victory a year ago. Nonetheless, Jones has a cannon for an arm and at 6-5, 250 lbs. he is tough to take down. If a team can put up with his inconsistent accuracy and teach him to survey the entire field he might surprise some people.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 4 #115 overall - New York Jets

10. Jacoby Brissett - NC State

The big, experienced Jacoby Brissett played in a pro-style offense under a coach who worked with NFL QB's Russel Wilson and Mike Glennon. This alone wouldn't be enough to get drafted, but Brissett flashed just enough potential in college to make this list. With a big frame, a strong arm and an uncanny ability to make something out of nothing Brissett is a late-round prospect that has the chance to be a very good back-up. Despite inconsistent accuracy, Birssett seems to always make the big play right when his team needed it, if he can translate this ability to the pros he'll find himself on someone's roster come preseason.
Predicted Draft Position: Round 6 #173 overall - Buffalo Bills

Other draftees:
Brandon Allen - Arkansas
An experience, pro-style QB that could make a good back-up. Predicted round: 6/7
Cody Kessler - USC
Showed great promise in his junior year before falling off in 2015. Predicted round: 7

What this blog is about

My goal for this blog is to provide unbiased, insightful sports analysis. I will look at a number of different sports on a number of different levels and talk about many different topics. Using a combination of new-age sabermetrics and the old-school 'eye test' I will be posting top-ten lists, predictions and player rankings; among other things.